逻辑的第一性原理是两个事件的蕴含关系

事件A蕴含事件B则意味着发生A必然能够推导发生了B，发生A则一定发生了B，发生B是发生A的必要条件。如果A发生不一定能推导B发生，则不能说A蕴含B。比如，A“我上班迟到了”，B“我起晚了”，则A不蕴含B。

对于一些必然的常识，例如一天有24小时，虽然这是一定发生的事件，但是“一天有24小时”并不是某事件A发生的先决条件，我们不能够说事件A蕴含“一天有24小时”。

人类无意识的，自发性的推理有时候并非是“理性”的推理。自动式思维往往是根据经验进行联想，但并没有思考正真的蕴含关系。自动式思维下，我们往往会根据经验，把必要条件B当成充分条件推理出B发生了则A就会发生，其实这是把AB的蕴含关系颠倒了。例如，从“我身体不舒服”下意识推理出“我感冒了”，但事实上，“我感冒了”会导致“身体不舒服”，是“我感冒了”蕴含“身体不舒服”，并不能由“身体不舒服”推理出必然“感冒了”。

例题Football team’s fans expect the team to make the playoffs. If the team makes the playoffs then their fans expect it to win the Super Bowl. A team that is happy just to make the playoffs will upset its fans. The New York Giants’ primary goal is to meet their fans’ expectations.

If the statements above are true, which of the following must also be true?

(A) The New York Giants is the most popular football team.

(B) A team that does not think its fans want it to make the playoffs will certainly not make the

playoffs.

(C) The Giants’ primary goal is possible only if they win the Super Bowl.

(D) If a team is happy just to make the playoffs one year, it won’t make the playoffs next year.

(E) The Giants’ fans are not currently upset.

做题的时候有被B选项迷惑到，觉得A team wishes to meet fan’s expectations, and the team does not think it’s fans want it to make the playoffs, then it is certain the team will not make the playoffs. 解析说不对的点是因为前提只说了fans want the team to make the playoffs的情况,我觉得我的逻辑最不对的点是，前提说的是“The New York Giants”wants to meet the fan’s expectations, 我并不能由这个队伍的expectations来推理其他team。但是在做题的时候很容易混淆这一点。

p.s 我工作的职责就是产品定价，所以看到老师用产品定价来举例，觉得还是很亲切的：）我们定价确实是value-based和cost-based的一个平衡。