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题库 / GMATAdvanced-CR-22
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts, even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
科学家说“给我一个支点我就能撬动地球。”但是这个观点是无法评价的，因为你找不到这个支点，也就不能说明到底是因为支点还没找到的问题还是因为这句话本身就是错的。但是如果给我一个衡量支点是不是真的找到了的办法，就有机会去判断当支点找到了，是不是就一定能撬动地球。
同理，这个文本的意思是，天气学家认为只要数学模型足够精确，就完全能够做出准确的天气预报（if only, 即精确的数学模型是准确的预报的充分条件）；author认为这个充分性很难证明，因为没有办法说一个模型是不是已经足够精确了；所以如果遇到了不准确的预报，既可以是因为数学模型不够准确，也可以是因为数学模型已经足够准确了但是并不是只有数学模型就够了（条件的充分性是错误的），可是由于我们没有判断数学模型准确与不准确的标准，也就无法在两种competing explanation中选择其一；
但是B选项转换了一种思路，不需要要求明确的precise mathematic models，但是只要证明出来trend（即，increase in mathematic models确实会带来更多precise forecasts）这样相当于加强了precise models->precise forecast这一种因果正相关关系，也就是加强因果联系。
作者说，这太扯了，那不是所有预报的不准都可以拿模型不准当借口了？
问如何削弱作者的观点。作者其实是觉得预报的不准和模型不准没关系，所以才不能把模型当借口，B项确认了模型准确度和预报准确度的正相关关系，即削弱了作者观点
A 讲的data的作用，无关
CE都是讲construct模型
D 讲模型的准确度，但是没有讲how
问削弱作者的观点，也就削弱【天气预报准不准和模型精确度没有关系】
B项 明确说明两者有关系
题目问削弱作者这一想法的选项，即证明气象学家说法可以被评估论证的选项是：
B：模型的精确度上升是可以带来预测的准确度上升的，两者之间存在因果关系。所以气象学家的观点是有据可循的。
A项：某些不寻常的数据结构可以作为精确天气预报的基础，尽管确切的因果机制尚不清楚。
B项：在相关数学模型的准确性方面最显著的提高是伴随着天气预报精度的明显提高。
错选e
e否定前提了，没有讨论的意义
B. Correct. This tells us that significant but incremental improvements in the accuracy of mathematical models result in gradual improvements in the accuracy of weather forecasting—even if wholly accurate and precise forecasts are never attained. This would allow evaluation of any progress in modeling and forecasting weather.
吓死了我还以为这些回答都是你手打的....发现是复制的
我没那么腻害...
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