In the past, every ten-percentage-point increase in cigarette prices in the country of Coponia has decreased per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent. Coponia is about to raise taxes on cigarettes by 9 cents per pack. The average price of cigarettes in Coponia is and has been for more than a year 90 cents per pack. So the tax hike stands an excellent chance of reducing per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
Tobacco companies are unlikely to reduce their profit per pack of cigarettes to avoid an increase in the cost per pack to consumers in Coponia.
Previous increases in cigarette prices in Coponia have generally been due to increases in taxes on cigarettes.
Any decrease in per capita sales of cigarettes in Coponia will result mainly from an increase in the number of people who quit smoking entirely.
At present, the price of a pack of cigarettes in Coponia includes taxes that amount to less than ten percent of the total selling price.
The number of people in Coponia who smoke cigarettes has remained relatively constant for the past several years.
找出了tax和sale price之间的gap ,明明想的也是A,但是还是错选了B
选了B,B是有关的,但是过来再看发现犯了一个归纳法和充分必要条件的错误。
按照罗素的归纳方式来看,如果太阳在每一天都是升起的,那么我们是不是能够预测下一天的太阳也是会升起的?按照经验主义来看是这样,但是从逻辑上来看却不是,因为以前的经验不能够保证以后的事情发生的概率。
B选项就是这样,以前的烟草价格上升往往是(generally)来自于税收的增长,但是问题在于,首先归纳法能够归纳出下一次价格增长吗?很显然是不行的。其次,价格上升因为税收增长,但是税收增长并不会一定导致价格上升。这里并不是一个充分条件。
我也选了B,一直很纠结,你这解释听懂了,谢谢
登录 或 注册 后可以参加讨论