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题库 / GMATLA-CR-112
A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker's Beach, the world's sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching. Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker's Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists' prediction that the world's Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists' prediction?
The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker's Beach.
Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker's Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old.
Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker's Beach.
Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs.
After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker's Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill.
假设现在是2010年。
Premise 1：2005年B海滩发生了化学泄露，造成了M海龟的蛋无法孵化。
Premise 2：然而，2005-2010年间，回来B海滩下单的M海龟反而增多了。
结论：因此，环境学家认为M海龟的数量因为2005年的化学泄露而减少的结论是错的。
题目要求推翻上述结论，也就是认为环境学家的结论是对的，即需要证明Premise 2的事实与化学泄露无关。B选项，M海龟10岁才回来下蛋，因此2005-2010间回来下单的海龟是在1995-2000年之间孵化出来的，的确与化学泄露无关。但是化学泄露影响会从泄露发生日开始的10年后产生，即2015年开始，会看到没有M海龟回来下单了（因为他们在2005年的泄露实践中被kill了），所以最后M海龟的数量还是会因为化学泄露事件而减少。
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