Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting. In an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years. Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.
The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government's plan?
The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.
Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.
The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.
The proportion of Sandonians attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.
The number of Sandonians who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.
D选项中戒烟的人的百分比信息文中并没有提及未来是会降低/上升
A选项中因为吸烟的人会吸更多数量的烟,因此tar吸入的数量不会下降,正确
argument没有提及未上瘾的群体
读题
大多数疾病都是因为吸入香烟中的tar引起的,然而戒烟难是因为对nicotine上瘾。为了减少香烟引起的疾病,计划将每支烟的nicotine减半,但是烟民会因此吸更多的烟。问must be true
choice a, 目前对尼古丁上瘾的烟民吸入的tar总量可能不会减少。correct
choice b, 没有对尼古丁上瘾的烟民可以未来吸更多的香烟。没出现的新事物,错误。
choice a, 目前对尼古丁上瘾的烟民吸入的tar总量可能不会减少。correct
choice b, 没有对尼古丁上瘾的烟民可以未来吸更多的香烟。无法判断
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premise1 smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes,注意是who are already addicted to nicotine 更D选项中的quit smoking没关系
average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine=
X(tar per cigarette)*Y(cigarette总的消费支数)/Z(number of people currently addicted to nicotine)
Y上升,Z因为是已经上瘾的人,所以变化方向只有减少,不可能上升
所以总量变大