In 1983 Argonia's currency, the argon, underwent a reduction in value relative to the world's strongest currencies. This reduction resulted in a significant increase in Argonia's exports over 1982 levels. In 1987 a similar reduction in the value of the argon led to another increase in Argonia's exports. Faced with the need to increase exports yet again, Argonia's finance minister has proposed another reduction in the value of the argon.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the prediction that the finance minister's plan will not result in a significant increase in Argonia's exports next year?
The value of the argon rose sharply last year against the world's strongest currencies.
In 1988 the argon lost a small amount of its value, and Aronian exports rose slightly in 1989.
The value of Argonia's exports was lower last year than it was the year before.
All of Argonia's export products are made by factories that were operating at full capacity last year, and new factories would take years to build.
Reductions in the value of the argon have almost always led to significant reductions in the amount of goods and services that Argonians purchase from abroad.
至少要在谈论这件事本身,且在正确的方向
A:去年的事情对今年和明年的影响?B:加强了这个argon value下降,export就会上升的关系。C:去年和前年export value的比较,无关。D:产能不行了,export不能更多了。E:讲的是import的事情
不能眼瞎, will not //
措施目的 - 环境改变
因果论证 - 其他因素/样本可比性
ministre建议今年reduce argon value,明年的export就会上涨(基于两次的经验)
A:去年的事情对今年和明年的影响?B:加强了这个argon value下降,export就会上升的关系。C:去年和前年export value的比较,无关。D:产能不行了,export不能更多了。E:讲的是import的事情
1.support+will not result in=削弱
2.
类比推理,前两次贬值→出口增加
所以这次也可以这么做
找不同点/反案例
方案推理,目的:出口增加,方案:贬值
D.产能不足(不同点)(方案的可行性问题)
3.A,是自己YY的,“认为去年上涨异常,所以降了也不太会促进出口”。只要今年降了就可以促出口,和去年无关。况且去年是否异常选项又没说。
B.类比 相同案例→加强
C.去年前年的出口 无关比较
E,进口,无关
1.support+will not result in=削弱
2.
类比推理,前两次贬值→出口增加
所以这次也可以这么做
找不同点/反案例
方案推理,目的:出口增加,方案:贬值
D.产能不足(不同点)(方案的可行性问题)
3.A,是自己YY的,“认为去年上涨异常,所以降了也不太会促进出口”。只要今年降了就可以促出口,和去年无关。况且去年是否异常选项又没说。
B.类比 相同案例→加强
C.去年前年的出口 无关比较
E,进口,无关