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题库 / OG2020-CR-618
In Country X's last election, the Reform Party beat its main opponent, the Conservative Party, although pollsters, employing in-person interviews shortly before the vote, had projected a Conservative Party victory. Afterwards, the pollsters determined that, unlike Conservative Party supporters, Reform Party supporters were less likely to express their party preference during in-person interviews than they were during telephone interviews. Therefore, using only telephone interviews instead would likely result in more accurate projections for the next election.
Which of the following statements, if true, would most support the argument in the passage?
The number of voters in Country X's next election will be significantly larger than the number of voters in the last election.
The Conservative Party will win the next election.
For each person interviewed in telephone polls before the next election, pollsters will be able to reasonably determine the likelihood of that person voting.
People who expressed no party preference during the in-person interviews shortly before Country X's last election did not outnumber the people who expressed a preference for the Conservative Party.
In the next election, pollsters will be able to conduct more in-person interviews than telephone interviews.
情景： 在X国上次选举中，虽然民意调查人在选举前进行了面对面采访，预测保守党会赢，但是最终改革党赢了保守党。之后，民意调查人认为，不像保守党的支持者，改革党的支持者比起在电话采访中，在面对面采访中更不太愿意说自己的想法。因此，下次只用电话采访会更有可能得到一个准确的预测。
推理：
（因）前提：改革党的支持者更愿意在电话采访中说出自己的想法
（果）结论：电话采访能得到一个更准确的预测
选项分析：
A选项：下次的voter数量会明显大于上次的voter数量：能不能拿到准确的预测与数量无关。
B选项：保守党下次会赢得选举：我们讨论的是拿到准确预测的方法，而不是选举的结果。
C选项：正确。下次选举前的电话采访中，民意调查人能准确判断出此人投票的可能性。
D选项：上次选举前的个人采访中，面对面采访中表示出无党倾向的人的数量没有超过支持保守党的人的数量：无关。我们讨论的是下次选举中能不能通过电话采访拿到准确预测。
E选项：在下次选举中，比起电话采访，民意调查人有能力进行更多的面对面采访：无关。
C的意思是，下次在选举前的电话采访中，民意调查人能够准确判断此人投票的可能
这个意思不是指“预测对方支持保守党还是改革党”，而是指“通过电话采访能够更准确的判断ta在未来投票中支持哪个党派”
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