Mayor:False alarms from home security systems waste so much valuable police time that in many communities police have stopped responding to alarms from homes whose systems frequently produce false alarms. This policy reduces wastage of police time but results in a loss of protection for some residents. To achieve a comparable reduction in wastage without reducing protection for residents, the council has enacted a measure to fine residents for repeated false alarms.


Which of the following, if true, casts the most doubt on whether the measure enacted by the council will achieve its goal?    


A fine in the amount planned by the council will not cover the expenses police typically incur when they respond to a false alarm.    

Homes equipped with security systems are far less likely to be broken into than are homes without security systems.  

The threat of fines is likely to cause many residents to deactivate their security systems.    

The number of home security systems is likely to increase dramatically over the next five years.    

Many home security systems have never produced false alarms.    

考题讲解

情景:mayor:错误的家庭警报会浪费警察的时间,导致警察拒绝去那些经常有错误警报的家庭(狼来了的故事)。这确实减少了时间的浪费但是也减少了对居民的保护。为了既能减少警察时间的浪费也为了保护好居民,委员会决定对那些总是错误报警的人进行罚款。

推理:方案推理

目标:不会浪费警察时间也能保护好居民

方案:对胡乱报警的人罚款。

选项分析:

A选项:罚款的数额无法cover掉回复错误警报的成本:无关,罚款的目的并不是为了cover成本。

B选项:装了安保系统的家庭更不容易被进入:与方案无关。

C选项:正确。罚款带来的威胁会造成许多居民不再开安保系统:方案的副作用,如果居民不再开安保系统,那么对居民的保护会减少。

D选项:
接下来的五年,家庭安保系统的数量会大幅度增加:与方案无关。

E选项:
许多家庭的安保系统从未有过错误警报:与方案无关。

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