With seventeen casinos, Moneyland operates the most casinos in a certain state. Although intent on expanding, it was outmaneuvered by Apex Casinos in negotiations to acquire the Eldorado chain. To complete its acquisition of Eldorado, Apex must sell five casinos to comply with a state law forbidding any owner to operate more than one casino per county. Since Apex will still be left operating twenty casinos in the state, it will then have the most casinos in the state.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the prediction?


Apex, Eldorado, and Moneyland are the only organizations licensed to operate casinos in the state.

The majority of Eldorado's casinos in the state will need extensive renovations if they are to continue to operate profitably.

Some of the state's counties do not permit casinos.

Moneyland already operates casinos in the majority of the state's counties.

Apex will use funds it obtains from the sale of the five casinos to help fund its acquisition of the Eldorado chain.

考题讲解

情景:本题的情景相对比较复杂,我们仔细翻译一下。拥有17座赌场,M目前在某一州内运营了最多的赌场。虽然M意图扩张,但是A目前动作要比M快,它正在并购E(M/A/E都是运营赌场的机构)。为了完成对E的并购,A必须要卖掉5座赌场(因为政府有法律规定,一个county只能有一个赌场)。因为A并购之后会运营20座赌场,所以它将会变成该州最大的赌场运营机构。

推理:本题是明显的因果推理。当然,这个难度主要不再推理方式的判断上,而是在把整个题目的逻辑链搞清楚上。
前提:A并购之后会运营20座赌场
结论:A将会超过M成为该州最大的赌场运营机构

选题方式:因果推理只有一个评估方向,简而言之,即,反驳推理文段中的结论。

选项分析:

A选项:Correct. Apex , Eldorado, 和Moneyland是该州唯三的三家运营赌场的机构。如果本选项成立,那么A在收购E的时候必须要卖出的那5间赌场只能卖给M了,自然M的运营赌场数就变成了17+5=22家了。反驳了结论。

B选项:大部分E的赌场需要大装修才能继续在能盈利的情况下运营。推理文段的结论讨论的是运营赌场的数量,而不是赌场是否能盈利。

C选项:有些州的县不允许开设赌场。A是收购的赌场,所以必然已经是允许开设的县才会有的赌场了,所以本选项和结论无关。

D选项:
M已经在大部分的周的县里运营赌场了。如果M已经这样做了,那就更说明A将会成为最大的运营结构了,因为M的扩张基本已经没希望了。

E选项:
A用自己卖出的5座赌场的收入投资了收购的E的赌场。本选项和推理文段的结论无关。

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