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题库 / Prep2007E1-CR-58
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population
Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
选A之前在B里犹豫了一下还是选错了...
在这里，其实Sharon的理论是根据概率论的基本原理来的，例如说如果全国人民中奖率是10%，那就等于说10个人有1个会中奖。但在这个结论里做了总体样本是平均分布的假设（通俗点来说是机会均等），也就是说，如果全国人民如果就浙江人民在中奖的话，你如果在上海，你认识的10个人里就不会有人会中奖。
B选项说：失业情况不会集中在地理孤立的某些地区人口上 （你可以想象如果上海人民全失业了...）
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