Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population
Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
Roland:这个国家有90%的人报道他们认识失业的人
Sharon:但是一个正常的失业率是5%,每20个人里面有1个失业。只要一个人认识大约50个人,就有一个甚至更多的人失业。
choice a, 合适的失业率从未被超过。 irrelevant,无从得知
choice b,失业不会集中在一个地理上封闭的人群中。correct,如果取非,失业集中在一个封闭的地方,那么在这个地区平均每个人能认识50个人,其中的失业者人数就可能远超2.5个人了。因此正常失业率5%就不可应用于这种条件了
choice d, Roland 没有刻意扭曲数据。irrelevant,因为在论证Sharon自己的观点,和Roland的数据没有关系
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