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题库 / Prep2007E1-CR-58
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population
Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
统计枚举
R：这个国家90%的人宣称自己认识失业者
S：但正常的失业率是5%，如果你认识50个人，你就至少认识一个或更多失业者
S的Assu （取反比较容易）
因为是统计枚举题，要说明S的“正常失业率”是普适的，有代表性的
A、正常失业率很少被超过，取反，即使被超过，到6%，也不足以削弱S的论证
B、失业率不是仅仅关注那些与世隔绝的人口，取反，仅仅关注的话，那么S的“正常失业率”就不具有代表性了，CORRECT
C、90%以上的人互相知道对方知道（有点绕）认识失业者，无关
D、R没有扭曲数据，无关（与S肯定无关，不要过度Infer）
E、得知有人失业比看到失业数据更让人害怕失业，无关
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