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题库 / Prep2007E2-CR-8
Which of the following most logically completes the argument?
Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utranian oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less-restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.
the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years
the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranians who own automobiles
most of the investment in new oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources
new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted
many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter
所以选项是要选可以削弱 the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports
现在新开采----出口增多。 削弱出口增多
A 油价稳定 这里不考虑价格
B 导致买车的人增多，国内用油量增多，不一定出口增多
C 投资来源 无关
D 没谈到新开采
E 产量怎么样。。和出口没关系
不要再用归纳推理去归纳原因了，总会出现想不到的原因
前提至少是结论的必要条件，取非判断即可
A价格波动与否和出口量变化相关性太弱
所以选项是要选可以削弱 the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports，而显然B选项是一个完美的他因削弱，即提到了这种情况，即rapid development of new field是由于国内拥有车比例增加而增加的。所以这个原因削弱了原文：“result in higher oil exports"
U的经济形势很好，新领域蓬勃发展→并不意味着更高的石油出口
（解释）因为
A、未来油价相对稳定，无关出口
B、U的经济形势好会导致极大提高U人买汽车的比率（石油都内部消化了），CORRECT
C、新领域的投资大多来源于外国，无关出口
D、新技术让油田里正在消减的石油recover，无关出口
E、新油田生产石油很大可能和U当年作为主要石油出口国的时候一样好，无关，甚至反向
C:投资来源和出口无关
E选项在说供给问题，与出口无关
C选项在说需求问题（内需增加，出口自然就少了呀）
出口是否能增加依赖于需求！！！！！
permeate V.弥漫，渗透
premature adj.未成熟的；早产的；仓促的，草率的
premature
premature
premature
premature 过早！ so early
而出口转内需则有可能大幅减少出口
因： rapid development of new fields
果：result in higher oil exports。
那么这中间的gap就是新开的field所带来的油的产量增加能否先达到满足内需的量，只有满足了内需才能再进行出口。而B讲的就是一个内需扩大的征兆，所以它可以打断文中的因果链
石油出口大国Utrania的石油开采被政府限制，其最近的经济发展源于政府对新产业的政策宽松，且文中问Utrania的经济繁荣不会导致石油出口上升的理由。新油田开发受限，产量无法上升，不会导致出口上升，但要解释Utrania的经济繁荣从石油出口转到什么方向，B从石油需求由出口转为内需解释了这个问题。