The Environmental Protection Agency frequently puts mandatory controls on toxic substances that present as little risk as one in a million chances to cause cancer.
as little risk as one in a million chances to cause
as little risk as one chance in a million of causing
as little risk as one chance in a million that it will cause
a risk as little as one chance in a million for causing
a risk as little as one chance in a million for it to cause
the same reasoning applies here; you're looking for idiomatic usage that agrees with 'risk', not 'chance'.
the last poster is correct in one sense, which is that there are correct idiomatic usages of 'chance to'.
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