In the nation of Partoria, large trucks currently account for 6 percent of miles driven on Partoria's roads but are involved in 12 percent of all highway fatalities. The very largest trucks—those with three trailers—had less than a third of the accident rate of single-and double-trailer trucks. Clearly, therefore, one way for Partoria to reduce highway deaths would be to require shippers to increase their use of triple-trailer trucks.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?


Partorian trucking companies have so far used triple-trailer trucks on lightly traveled sections of major highways only.

No matter what changes Partoria makes in the regulation of trucking, it will have to keep some smaller roads off-limits to all large trucks.

Very few fatal collisions involving trucks in Partoria are collisions between two trucks.

In Partoria, the safety record of the trucking industry as a whole has improved slightly over the past ten years.

In Partoria, the maximum legal payload of a triple-trailer truck is less than three times the maximum legal payload of the largest of the single-trailer trucks.

考题讲解

情景:常识是不对的,最大的卡车反而是最安全的。数据表明,三个车厢的卡车在事故率上反而比一个或者两个车厢的卡车更低,因此,为了减少事故率,还是用三个车厢的卡车吧。

推理:
前提:“三个车厢的卡车”和“事故率更低”之间存在正相关关系
结论:为了让事故率更低,用三个车厢的卡车吧。

答案预估:

其它能解释为何“事故率更低”的原因。

“三厢卡车导致事故率低”的其它必要条件(常理上能保真推理出的一切结果)不存在。


选项分析:

A选项:Correct. Partoria的卡车公司目前都将三厢卡车派往车流量最少的公路上行驶。本选项给出了为什么“事故率低”。

B选项:无论Partoria对卡车的限制如何变化,Partoria仍然会让一些比较小的路不能通过大型卡车。本选项讨论的是Paroria的性质,不能评估推理文段。

C选项:很少的事故是在两个卡车之间发生的。本选项讨论的是事故发生的原理。

D选项:
卡车工业在Partoria地的安全记录在过去的十年中上升了。本选项讨论的是卡车工业整体的情况,属于前提中提及的原理。

E选项:
在Partoria,三厢卡车的载货量少于一厢卡车的三倍。本选项属于卡车载货的原理,没有提及因果。

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Prep2008E1-CR

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