In the nation of Partoria, large trucks currently account for 6 percent of miles driven on Partoria's roads but are involved in 12 percent of all highway fatalities. The very largest trucks—those with three trailers—had less than a third of the accident rate of single- and double-trailer trucks. Clearly, therefore, one way for Partoria to reduce highway deaths would be to require shippers to increase their use of triple-trailer trucks.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?


No matter what changes Partoria makes in the regulation of trucking, it will have to keep some smaller roads off-limits to all large trucks.

So far only the best, most experienced drivers for Partorian trucking companies have been driving triple-trailer trucks.

Very few fatal collisions involving trucks in Partoria are collisions between two trucks.

In Partoria, the safety record of the trucking industry as a whole has improved slightly over the past ten years.

In Partoria, the maximum legal payload of a triple-trailer truck is less than three times the maximum legal payload of the largest of the single-trailer trucks.

加入错题本 分享
纠错
考题讲解

情景：常识是不对的，最大的卡车反而是最安全的。数据表明，三个车厢的卡车在事故率上反而比一个或者两个车厢的卡车更低，因此，为了减少事故率，还是用三个车厢的卡车吧。

推理：
前提：“三个车厢的卡车”和“事故率更低”之间存在正相关关系
结论：为了让事故率更低，用三个车厢的卡车吧。

答案预估：

其它能解释为何“事故率更低”的原因。
“三厢卡车导致事故率低”的其它必要条件（常理上能保真推理出的一切结果）不存在。


选项分析：

A选项：无论Partoria对卡车的限制如何变化，Partoria仍然会让一些比较小的路不能通过大型卡车。本选项讨论的是Paroria的性质，不能评估推理文段。

B选项：Correct. 至今，都是最有经验的司机来驾驶三厢卡车。本选项给出三厢卡车事故率低潜在可能的原因，即，“司机经验丰富导致事故率低”，可以削弱推理文段。

C选项：很少的事故是在两个卡车之间发生的。本选项讨论的是事故发生的原理。

D选项：卡车工业在Partoria的安全记录在过去的十年中上升了。本选项讨论的是卡车工业整体的情况，属于前提中提及的原理。

E选项：在Partoria，三厢卡车最大的合法运载量小于单厢卡车最大运载量的三倍。本选项属于卡车载货的原理，没有提及因果。

展开显示

登录 或 注册 后可以参加讨论

Prep2008E2-CR
考点