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题库 / Prep2012-CR-38
Surveys in Domorica indicate that only 10 percent of Domoricans in their twenties read a newspaper regularly, while more than half of all Domoricans over thirty read a newspaper regularly. Although Domoricans in their twenties constitute a large proportion of the population, newspaper publishers nonetheless predict that ten years from now, the percentage of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper will probably be no lower than it is today.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the newspaper publishers' prediction?
The number of Domoricans in their twenties is less than the number of Domoricans over thirty.
The number of newspapers in Domorica has been gradually increasing over the past several decades.
The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
The surveys defined a regular reader of a newspaper as someone who reads a newspaper more than twice a week.
The proportion of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper was higher 20 years ago than it is today.
第一句说明——现在的数据：20岁的读报少，30岁的读报多，20岁占了人口的一大部分
结论是：十年后，读报人的比例不变/增加。
选项C类似填补推理逻辑。原文中只说明了当下的数据，并没有说明随着年龄增加，读报的比例就一定会上升。选项C填补了这一逻辑，C说20岁读报的人一直很少；这也就是说现在数据的30岁这批人10年前他们读报也很少，10年后也就是现在，有超过一半的人读报了，逻辑就是：年龄增加，就会使得读报增多。
第一句说明——现在的数据：20岁的读报少，30岁的读报多，20岁占了人口的一大部分
结论是：十年后，读报人的比例不变/增加。
选项C类似填补推理逻辑。原文中只说明了当下的数据，并没有说明随着年龄增加，读报的比例就一定会上升。选项C填补了这一逻辑，C说20岁读报的人一直很少；这也就是说现在数据的30岁这批人10年前他们读报也很少，10年后也就是现在，有超过一半的人读报了，逻辑就是：年龄增加，就会使得读报增多。
People in 30s - 50% read newspaper
You might expect that since the younger generation is not reading the paper much, after some years, the % of people reading the paper will decrease. But the publishers claim that after some years, the % of people reading the paper will stay the same. How can you strengthen it?
What I think will strengthen it: People start reading the paper as they get older or something similar
Option (C) tells you that proportion of people reading the paper in their 20s has always been low. Hence, people who are right now in their 30s were also not reading the paper much when they were in their 20s. Which means that they start reading the paper at a later age. This strengthens the publishers' claim.
B, D and E are out of scope and needn't be considered at all.
As for (A), what we are interested in is the % of paper readers within each age bracket. Whether people in 20s are more or people in 30s are more doesn't matter. We need to keep the % of people reading the paper the same.
预测：未来读报的人的比率不会比现在低。
c说明20岁左右不读报、30岁读报是一种普适规律
他假设的前提就是不同年龄段的。 读报率一直不变。要知道读报率这个东西是会随着时间可能变的
The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
结论：十年之后，看报纸的人比例会上升
⚠️要比较的是十年后和现在，所以2个时间段都要提到
C选项：20岁的人看报率保持不变，那么10年后现在20岁的一大帮人都变成30多了，开始看报，比例会上升或者保持稳定
choice c, 二十几岁读报的年轻人比例一直都很低。correct, 说明现在不读报的二十几岁年轻人很有可能在接下来10年发生阅读习惯的改变
choice e, 经常读报纸的Domoricans人占到的比例在20年前要高于今天。 irrelevant
C. has always been low就说明了该情况可以一直延续下去，20岁读报少和30岁读报多是一个根据年龄的固定规律。
A. 两个年龄阶段的人数对本题没有影响，要关注的是各个年龄阶段的人 读书比例 是否有变化 。
C. has always been low就说明了该情况可以一直延续下去
A. 两个年龄阶段的人数对本题没有影响，要关注的是各个年龄阶段的人 读书比例 是否有变化
c 说明20岁，30岁的读报规律是有多年普遍性的
想了一下觉得是逻辑的gap是用现在这批20岁的人读报比例少，推断10年之后的读报比例。
要想加强十年之后的读报的比例不会比现在低就要说明20岁不咋读报，30岁读报的人多了是一直以来的一个社会规律，不是这一代20岁比较特例。那么就说20岁读报比例一直这么低，现在的30岁爱读报的也是从那时候过来了，人们随着年龄增长趋向于爱读报纸，所以，十年过后，这批20岁到他们的30岁时候，读报的人数也会增加，符合社会演变的规律，总体读报比例保持稳定。