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题库 / Prep2012-CR-59
Press Secretary: Our critics claim that the president's recent highway project cancellations demonstrate a vindictive desire to punish legislative districts controlled by opposition parties. They offer as evidence the fact that 90 percent of the projects canceled were in such districts. But all of the canceled projects had been identified as wasteful in a report written by respected nonpartisan auditors. So the president's choice was clearly motivated by sound budgetary policy, not partisan politics.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the press secretary's argument depends?
Canceling highway projects was not the only way for the president to punish legislative districts controlled by opposition parties.
The scheduled highway projects identified as wasteful in the report were not mostly projects in districts controlled by the president's party.
The number of projects canceled was a significant proportion of all the highway projects that were to be undertaken by the government in the near future.
The highway projects canceled in districts controlled by the president's party were not generally more expensive than the projects canceled in districts controlled by opposition parties.
Reports by nonpartisan auditors are not generally regarded by the opposition parties as a source of objective assessments of government projects.
误导性：被取消的都是浪费的---会误导我们： 没有被取消的就不是被浪费的
幸存者偏差：取消的都是浪费的，只能说明取消的只是浪费的一个子集，可能是真子集，也可能是相等的。我们要关注的就是这个子集的补集。也就是幸存者偏差里面的“沉默的数据”---浪费的有没有被cancel的。
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