Southington University's fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted this year. This rate would be the expected rate if the only potential donors contacted were those who have donated in the past. But good fund-raisers constantly contact less likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. Thus the high success rate, far from showing that the fund-raisers did a good job, shows insufficient canvassing effort.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?
Among potential donors contacted by Southington University's fund-raisers, the majority of those who did not make donations were people who had made donations to the university in the past.
The amount of money raised by Southington University's fundraisers this year was lower than the amount they had raised in any of the previous several years.
Individual donations made to Southington University this year were, on average, slightly larger than were average individual donations made to many other universities.
Fund-raisers contacting past donors are not only to get new donations but also to get names of potential new donors to contact.
The majority of the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in getting for Southington University were from donors who had never given to the university before.
简言之,通过题干,知道评判一个fund-raiser是不是好的在于他们有没有去扩大自己的base(通过找新的dontaor)。
Conclusion实际上假设:这个U里面的raiser们没有好好的去找新的donator,所以才能有这么高的成功率。
要weaken这个假设。
A.没有make donation的人大多数是以前捐过钱的。one word off。如果是make donation的人大多数是以前捐过钱的人,就reverse logic。anyway,这个不成立。(切记stick to the point:你要找到关于捐钱群体内部人群比例的数据,即base on the assumption)
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