Smithtown University's fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does not indicate that they were doing a good job. On the contrary, since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.
Which of the following, if true, provides more support for the argument?
Smithtown University's fund-raisers were successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never given before about as frequently as were fund-raisers for other universities in their contacts with such people.
This year the average size of the donations to Smithtown University from new donors when the university's fund-raisers had contacted was larger than the average size of donations from donors who had given to the university before.
This year most of the donations that came to Smithtown University from people who had previously donated to it were made without the university's fund-raisers having made any contact with the donors.
The majority of the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in getting for Smithtown University this year were from donors who had never given to the university before.
More than half of the money raised by Smithtown University's fund-raisers came from donors who had never previously donated to the university.
相当于游说新人对于整体的success rate是有稀释作用的。老熟人捐款的概率高,新人捐款的概率低,那么raiser越努力去游说新人,整体success rate稀释得越厉害。S大的成功率高正好说明他们没有努力游说新人。前提是S大跟其他大学游说新人的成功率一样,否则如果S大忽悠新人的成功率奇低无比只有1%,而其他学校高达100%,那么S大捐款的新人少也不能说明raiser没有努力工作。
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