Smithtown University's fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does not indicate that they were doing a good job. On the contrary, since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.
Which of the following, if true, provides more support for the argument?
Smithtown University's fund-raisers were successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never given before about as frequently as were fund-raisers for other universities in their contacts with such people.
This year the average size of the donations to Smithtown University from new donors when the university's fund-raisers had contacted was larger than the average size of donations from donors who had given to the university before.
This year most of the donations that came to Smithtown University from people who had previously donated to it were made without the university's fund-raisers having made any contact with the donors.
The majority of the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in getting for Smithtown University this year were from donors who had never given to the university before.
More than half of the money raised by Smithtown University's fund-raisers came from donors who had never previously donated to the university.
A. 新客成功率和其它学校一样——没有更高于,更好于一般水平——直切主题——正确
引申:往往答案是很简单的逻辑——一步到位法,不过度解读
关于数目和比例的问题,由此看此题考的是比例,不是数目。也许新客数目多也不一定行——比例低一样代表成功率低/effort少。题目说成功是指努力把不可能捐的新客变为可能,要的是比例的提高,不是广撒网的人数。当然咱们不能用倒推法,那么重点关注题目倒数第二句的最后。它给出了定义。
B.新客捐量比老客量多——跑题——错误——且是反驳——首先判定为错误。并且题目的重点是人数,选项是体量。
引申:量与数的关系——虽然从量上看新客是高于老客,新客成功了,但若本题换成weaken反驳(SU表现不错——新客成功),此选项就对了吗?
答:依旧错。看似新客好于老客,印证了标准,实则是一个经典的跑题——谈人数的时候讲量,谈量的时候讲人数,混淆。何况此题的数目要的是比例。
通过选项再次摸清题目重点:有双重否定的陷阱。题目从SU表现好——转到不好——又问支持——实则问表现不好,那么表现好的选项则为weaken反驳(比如此项),表现不好的选项反而是支持support. 摸清逻辑后切记,带到最后一个选项,尤其C后,做到D、E时会忘和糊涂,可草稿快速记录重点。牢记而本题要的是support——表现不好——新客没成功。
C.老客自己找上门——标准的重点是开发新客成功——无关——错误
引申:翻译成老客自找上门要好于翻译成fund-raisers在老客上的失败。这是两件事,不做过度解读。
就算老客失败,选项就对了吗?一样错误。标准要的是新客的成功,不等于老客的失败,不能做联想,不做过度解读。
再次确定题目的标准:新客的成功。老客这样那样与否,与解题无关。
D.如前,新客给的量多——不是新客数多——错误——并且是反驳——首先判定为错误。虽然量多,新客好于老客,但方向跑题,就算题目换成反驳,一样错误。比如一个新客捐了一个亿,而50个老客一共捐1万;或者5老客里捐了4人,100新客里捐了5人。到此再次明晰题目要求,不是捐款量,而且捐款人数。
引申:即便是人数,另有关于人数数量和比例之分的题目,可衍生参考,考试注意对应考点。
这里如果谈综合比例,是自己和自己比的比例,新客+老客的成功比例,不同于A是和别人比的比例。所以和自己比的话,比例期待值是低的,因为新客成功率低,那么如何评判,比例低就是好吗?这个不好评判,幸好也没出现在选项里,这里GMAC给留了一命。。。没给相关选项加难度。谁让它体量数目比例一起考,题目复杂选项会简单,题目简单选项就复杂。
E.跟B和D一样在讲量——错误——而且仍是反驳——首先就直接判定错误。
引申:幸好,BDE,不管是平均量、总量还是分量,量都不能代表人数比例(如D里例子),若真出选项考到人数比例,怎么考,官方应该也没想好:和别人比还好说,自己比的时候怎么判断比例值与付出的努力的关系,综合比例低就一定代表付出了吗?再结合A的逻辑,就更复杂,所以估计这种情况下官方不会再考深,但其它的比例题可另行研究。
总结:关注此题只在讲一件事:新客到底成没成,成或不成,都是一件事,其它事件如老客之类首先排除。
学会举一反三,虽然有些题目降了难度,逻辑方向、逻辑目标等等会有不同程度的删减和降难度,但真实考场遇到的各种题各种情况都会有。要摸清逻辑,不因一道题的降难度而存侥幸做题。
其次本题留了考生一命:关于新客成不成,实际上只给了一个选项讨论到,如果另给个选项也讨论到(那就完蛋了。。。),而说的是新客成了,那需要清晰的辨析前后逻辑。
另外,正如大牛们所说,考试当场不可能分析这么多,而且大多数人会当场丧失逻辑分析能力,那么如果有各种大牛们的可行的“感觉”分析法,当然更好。重点是一切还得建立在练习的基础上。虽然到时候遇到的是新题,但商科逻辑思维方向是可以摸索出来的。平时学校的课程一直都有在增强这一块,有形无形中。
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