People who have spent a lot of time in contact with animals often develop animal-induced allergies, some of them quite serious. In a survey of current employees in major zoos, about 30 percent had animal-induced allergies. Based on this sample, experts conclude that among members of the general population who have spent a similarly large amount of time in close contact with animals, the percentage with animal-induced allergies is not 30 percent but substantially more.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the experts' conclusion?
A zoo employee who develops a serious animal-induced allergy is very likely to switch to some other occupation.
A zoo employee is more likely than a person in the general population to keep one or more animal pets at home
The percentage of the general population whose level of exposure to animals matches that of a zoo employee is quite small.
Exposure to domestic pets is, on the whole, less likely to cause animal-induced allergy than exposure to many of the animals kept in zoos.
Zoo employees seldom wear protective gear when they handle animals in their care.
这题是CR里的难题,但凡是可以确认推理模式的,就应该执行标准的做题步骤,先改写成标准的conclusion: 动物园工作的人里有30%过敏,人群中一样时间的人也有30%过敏 (样本被放大,统计枚举)套CQ: 正确答案必须涉及样本:动物园工作的人,剩下ABE, BE很清楚是方向反了,模考时排除法选A。
若要正面去理解A:假设整个population里面 有且只有在Zoo工作过的N人 spend a similarly large amount of time in close contact with animals,样本是当前在Zoo工作的n人,其中0.3n过敏,A还给了一个可以用的条件:样本外的N-n个人全部过敏,
所以 population里的百分比是 ((N-n)+0.3n)/N = 1 - (0.7n/N) > 0.3, 因为 n/N
这题是CR里的难题,但凡是可以确认推理模式的,就应该执行标准的做题步骤,先改写成标准的conclusion: 动物园工作的人里有30%过敏,人群中一样时间的人也有30%过敏 (样本被放大,统计枚举)CR,正确答案必须涉及样本:动物园工作的人,剩下ABE, BE很清楚是方向反了,模考时排除法选A。
若要正面去理解A:假设整个population里面 有且只有在Zoo工作过的N人 spend a similarly large amount of time in close contact with animals,样本是当前在Zoo工作的n人,其中0.3n过敏,A还给了一个可以用的条件:样本外的N-n个人全部过敏,
所以 (N-n)+0.3n/N = 1 - (0.7n/N) > 0.3, 因为 n/N
矛盾地方是,动物园的percent低,大众的percent高。a解释了动物园percent高是因为样本不全面,深度患病的都不在样本里。
bde 全反 c 无关
这个不是类比推理吗。。(动物园的人和其他普通人的类比)
不满足CQ啊。。(是因为结论不是只相同而是多了所以就不是类比推理了吗)
在一个survey中,动物园的员工(和动物相处一定时间)患过敏为:30%;
但是experts得出的conclusion是一般大众(和动物相处相同一定时间)患过敏却是:>30%,
这就形成了一个gap,题目问支持experts的conclusion,那么支持的一种就是填补这个gap。
选项A,说那些患严重过敏的人有可能转业了,说明survey不具有代表性,flawed,不能得出30%的数据 ————,支持结论
BCE全部无关,D反了
B:养宠物多和ALLERGY有毛关系,谁告诉你了?原文说了?
C : 暴露越多和ALLERGY有毛关系,谁告诉你了?原文说了?
D:比many animals in zoos低了,所以呢?然后呢?动物园可以就一头狮子,10种其他动物各1只,不能100人伺候一头狮子,狮子最过敏?这样的话是不是还是动物园里的人过敏比率高?
E:穿不穿防护服和ALLERGY有毛关系,谁告诉你了?原文说了?
统计枚举类题型
这题样本是动物园工作人员,那选项一定要有提到动物园工作人员,然后一定要说他们能代表其他人
如果是weaken 就是说不能够代表其他人
此题求讲解。