Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist's reasoning?


Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?

Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

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考题讲解

情景：社区激进者：如果Morganville想保持购物中心的健康发展，就应该禁止SaveAll折扣店在郊区开业。其他镇的记录显示，凡是SaveAll在郊区开店，5年内，商业区1/4的店铺都会倒闭。

推理：推理文段的前提是“其他镇的记录”，因此其显然是将其他镇的案例类比到自己身上，因此推理文段为类比推理。

选题方式：类比推理一共具有两个评估方向，简而言之，即，要么提到“其他镇子的情况”或Morganville，要么给出与这两个案例相平行等价的案例C。

选项分析：

A选项：激进者在其他镇子的反对SaveAll的运动是否成功？由于我们还不知道激进者在Morganville是否成功，所以他们在其他镇子上是否成功并不能指出类比对象的不同点。

B选项：是否多数Morganville的居民都会在Morganville购物？本选项没有提到其他镇子的情况。

C选项：Correct. 在购物中心健康发展的镇子上，5年内倒闭店铺比例是多少？本选项给出了另外一个案例，即，若在购物中心健康发展的镇子上5年内的倒闭店铺比例也为1/4，则证明Morganville也许在开了Saveall后也可以保持健康。

D选项：郊区的SaveAll店将从Morganville带走有多少员工？本选项和类比对象无关。

E选项：SaveAll店在开业的前5年是否会亏损？本选项和类比对象无关。

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