In the country of Veltria, the past two years' broad economic recession has included a business downturn in the clothing trade, where sales are down by about 7 percent as compared to two years ago. Clothing wholesalers have found, however, that the proportion of credit extended to retailers that was paid off on time fell sharply in the first year of the recession but returned to its prerecession level in the second year.

Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the change between the first and the second year of the recession in the proportion of credit not paid off on time?


The total amount of credit extended to retailers by clothing wholesalers increased between the first year of the recession and the second year.

Between the first and second years of the recession, clothing retailers in Veltria saw many of their costs, rent and utilities in particular, increase.

Of the considerable number of clothing retailers in Veltria who were having financial difficulties before the start of the recession, virtually all were forced to go out of business during its first year.

Clothing retailers in Veltria attempted to stimulate sales in the second year of the recession by discounting merchandise.

Relatively recession-proof segments of the clothing trade, such as work clothes, did not suffer any decrease in sales during the first year of the recession.

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情景：在Veltria，过去两年经济萧条，其中服装行业的销售额跟两年前相比下降了7%。服装批发商发现，零售商贷款按时还清的比例，在萧条的第一年下降，第二年恢复到萧条前水平。

推理：推理文段属于“相似推导相似”型，即，第一年和第二年因为都经济萧条，所以两个年份的零售商贷款按时还清的比例理应相同，推理文段为类比推理。

选题方式：类比推理一共具有两个评估方向，简而言之，即，要么提到“第一年”或“第二年，要么给出与这两个案例相平行等价的案例C。

选项分析：

A选项：两年之间，批发商贷给零售商的总贷款增加。虽然给出了类比对象的不同点，但是总贷款增加可能反而会使得还清比例更低。

B选项：两年之间，零售商发现自己的租金和用品成本增加。虽然给出了类比对象的不同点，但是成本增加应该会导致还清比例更低。

C选项：Correct. 萧条前就有财务困难的零售商，在萧条的第一年全部破产。本选项可以解释为什么第二年的还清比例高，因为第一年还不起就都死了。属于CQ1：相似性问题。

D选项：萧条的第二年，零售商打折促销。本选项给出的是零售商们怎么卖货，和还贷款无关。

E选项：对萧条有抵抗力的服装贸易，比如工作服装，在萧条的第一年销售未减少。本选项没有提到类比对象的区别。

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