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题库 / OG2016-CR-21
Many agriculturally intensive areas of the world are beginning to encounter water scarcity problems. As a result, many farmers in these areas are likely to reduce their output as the water supply they need in order to maintain production shrinks. However, one group of farmers in such a region plans to increase their production by implementing techniques for water conservation.
Which of the following, if true, would most strongly support the prediction that the group's plan will succeed?
Farmers who can gain a larger share of the food market in their regions will be better positioned to control more water resources.
Most agricultural practices in areas with water shortages are water intensive.
Other regions of the world not facing water shortages are likely to make up for the reduction in agricultural output.
Demand for agricultural products in the group's region is not expected to decline.
More than half the water used for agriculture in the farmers' region is lost to evaporation or leakage from irrigation channels.
情景：农民现在遭受到了水资源匮乏的困境，所以他们很快就需要减产了。但是呢，有一组农民希望通过新的节水技术来增加产量。
推理：由于本题的题目问方案是否可以成功，所以是方案推理。
目标：增加产量
方案：实施新的节水技术
选题方式：方案推理有三个评估方向，简而言之，即，答案选项一定和方案的内容相关。
选项分析：
A选项：那些拥有更大市场的农民们将被安排在能更好的获得水资源的地区。本选项和节水技术无关。
B选项：大部分在缺水地区的农业实践是高耗水的项目。如果大部分缺水地区的农产品是需水量大的项目，那么通过节水技术是无法弥补缺水现象的，可以在一定程度上削弱推理文段。属于CQ1：方案的可行性问题。
C选项：其它的没有水资源困境的地区也将会减少产量。本选项和节水技术无关。
D选项：在这组农民地区的农产品需求不会下降。本选项和节水技术无关。
E选项：Correct. 超过一半的这组农民地区的用水是由于蒸发以及灌溉渠道渗漏所消耗的。这两种流失方法都是可以通过技术来弥补的，如果水是因为一些非技术能弥补的方式消失的（比如农产品需水量大），那么技术则无法弥补此项。属于CQ1：方案的可行性问题。
题目问的是“引进节水技术”和“产量”之间的关系(increase their production by implementing techniques for water conservation)：
A 跟题目无关。讲的是通常情况：占有市场份额大的农民能得到好的水资源，没说引进节水技术的事。
B 描述的也是个事实
C 其他地区，无关
D 市场需求不会降，跟引进节水技术能不能提高产量无关。
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