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题库 / OG2016-CR-64
Which of the following most logically completes the passage?
A recent government study links the high rates of respiratory ailments in Groverston to airborne pollutants released by the Woodco plywood manufacturing plant there. To address the problem, the government imposed strict regulations on emissions which will go into effect in four years. Although Woodco plans to cut its emissions in half two years ahead of schedule, it is unlikely that the rate of respiratory ailments will decline before the regulations go into effect, since _______.
the number of facilities capable of treating respiratory ailments is not likely to increase
reducing emissions even further than planned would necessitate decreasing production at Woodco
it is difficult to make accurate, long-term predictions about emissions
not all respiratory ailments are caused by airborne pollutants
three new plywood manufacturing plants are about to go into production in Groverston
情景：最近的一项政府调查认为Groverston地的呼吸疾病与Woodco胶合版生产企业排放的污染物有关。为了解决这个问题，政府四年之后将实施严格的污染物排放监管措施。尽管Woodco工厂打算先于政府两年开始减排，但是人们并不认为呼吸疾病的发病率在监管措施出台前会下降。
推理：本题是一个“现象解释型考题”。按照正常逻辑来说，即，结论应该为“呼吸疾病的发病率在监管措施出台前会下降”。本题是方案推理。
推理结构为：
目标：减少污染
方案：实施严格的污染物排放监管措施
选题方式：方案推理有三个评估方向，简而言之，即，答案选项一定和方案的内容相关。
选项分析：
A选项：治疗呼吸疾病的医院的器材数量不睡上升。器材的数量和得病以后的情况有关，和发病率无关，没有提到方案。
B选项：比计划减少更多的排放意味着必须减产。本选项和方案无关。
C选项：做出关于排污的精准、长期的预测很难。本选项和方案无关。
D选项：并不是所有呼吸疾病均来自于空气污染。只要有呼吸疾病来自于空气污染，那么减排至少就是有一定作用的。
E选项：Correct. 有三个新的胶合板厂要在Groverston建立。本选项给出了方案无法达到目的的原因，即，Woodco减排了，但是新的工厂依然会使得整体排放不变甚至增加。
有个不一样的想法。
感觉像是因果推理，在方案推理的基础上，接下来是regulation在四年后实施（因），疾病（不）会减少（果），所以是因果推理。
但本题的结论是疾病不会减少，所以要先结论取非，疾病会减少，然后按照因果推理的办法来做，
即否定果：疾病会减少，在regulation生效前。
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