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题库 / OG2016-CR-88
Debater: The average amount of overtime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufacturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employees of the Haglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.
The debater's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?
It takes for granted that the manufacturing division is a typical division of the corporation with regard to the average amount of overtime its employees work each month.
It takes for granted that if a certain average amount of overtime is worked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation, then approximately the same amount of overtime must be worked each month by each employee of the manufacturing division.
It confuses a claim from which the argument's conclusion about the Haglut Corporation would necessarily follow with a claim that would follow from the argument's conclusion only with a high degree of probability.
It overlooks the possibility that even if, on average, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.
It overlooks the possibility that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, any one corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.
情景：辩论家：Haglut公司制造部的员工每月平均加班时间是14小时。绝大部分Haglut公司的人员都在制造部工作。除此之外，每位员工每月的加班时间比较固定。因此，Haglut公司的大部分员工每个月至少要加一段时间班。
推理：推理文段其实是一个反向的枚举推理，即，前提中讨论的是总体员工的平均情况，结论给出的是某些个体（样本）的情况。推理结构为：
前提：员工（制造部门）每月平均加班时间是14小时
结论：每个员工（制造部门）（样本）都会加班的。
选题方式：枚举推理一共具有两个评估方向，简而言之，即，答案选项一定要提及“员工”（样本）。
选项分析：
A选项：对于员工平均每月的加班时间来说，制造部门是一个公司典型的部门。本选项没有提及样本。
B选项：如果每个月的每个Haglut公司的员工有一个固定的加班时间，那么平均每个员工平均每月的加班时间就是相同的。推理文段讨论的主要是制造部门的情况，不是整个公司中所有员工的情况。
C选项：它混淆了一个关于Haglut公司必须要遵循的结论和仅仅以很大的可能性需要遵循的结论概念。本选项没有提及样本。
D选项：Correct. 它忽视了就算是某些组整体会加班，很多组员也完全不会加班。本选项显然给出了一个样本的代表性问题，即，并非每个组员都和整组一样。属于CQ1：样本代表性问题。
E选项： 它忽视了就算大部分公司的员工会在每个月加一些班，任意一个员工可能在某些月份里不加班。本选项找错了样本，推理文段的样本是大部分员工，而不是任意一个员工。
我觉得这道题考的是平均数谬误。
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