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题库 / OG2016-CR-89
In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?
When, if ever, will production of oil in Malvernia outstrip production of natural gas?
Is Malvernia among the countries that rely most on imported oil?
What proportion of Malvernia's total energy needs is met by hydroelectric, solar, and nuclear power?
Is the amount of oil used each year in Malvernia for generating electricity and fuel for transportation increasing?
Have any existing oil-burning heating systems in Malvernia already been converted to natural-gas-burning heating systems?
情景：过去Malvernia靠进口石油。最近Malvernia把供热系统从烧石油改为烧天然气。Malvernia每年生产的天然气比用的多，且石油产量稳定增长。因此，如果这种趋势继续，Malvernia对国外资源的依赖会减小。
推理：本题的前提和结论讲的是两件事，并且结论为果，所以为因果推理。
（因）前提：Malvernia每年生产的天然气比用的多，且石油产量稳定增长
（果）结论：如果这种趋势继续，Malvernia对国外资源的依赖会减小
选题方式：因果推理只有一个评估方向，简而言之，即，反驳推理文段中的结论。
选项分析：
A选项：Malvernia的石油产量什么时候能超过其天然气产量？本选项和结论无关。
B选项：Malvernia是进口依赖国吗？本选项讨论的是Malvernia的性质，不是它今后是否还会依赖进口。
C选项：Malvernia的水力发电、太阳能、核能占其总能源量的比例是多少？本选项和结论无关。
D选项：Correct. 每年的汽车用油和发电用油是否在增加？如果耗油量增加，那么Malvernia可能依然需要进口油。
E选项：有没有现有的石油供热系统已经转换为天然气供热系统？本选项和结论无关。
文章的结论是如果继续转变为天然气+生产石油，那么将逐渐转变依赖进口石油的现状。我们需要考虑的是会不会有其他因素插进来对结果产生影响？那么如果该城市的oil使用量继续上升呢？那么有可能就不满足结论了。因此选D
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