Traverton's city council wants to minimize the city's average yearly expenditures on its traffic signal lights and so is considering replacing the incandescent bulbs currently in use with arrays of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) as the incandescent bulbs burn out. Compared to incandescent bulbs, LED arrays consume significantly less energy and cost no more to purchase. Moreover, the costs associated with the conversion of existing fixtures so as to accept LED arrays would be minimal.

Which of the following would it be most useful to know in determining whether switching to LED arrays would be likely to help minimize Traverton's yearly maintenance costs?


Whether the expected service life of LED arrays is at least as long as that of the currently used incandescent bulbs

Whether any cities have switched from incandescent lights in their traffic signals to lighting elements other than LED arrays

Whether the company from which Traverton currently buys incandescent bulbs for traffic signals also sells LED arrays

Whether Traverton's city council plans to increase the number of traffic signal lights in Traverton

Whether the crews that currently replace incandescent bulbs in Traverton's traffic signals know how to convert the existing fixtures so as to accept LED arrays

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考题讲解

情景：Traverton城的委员会想减少交通灯的每年耗费，因此想等白炽灯泡用坏后把它们换成LED灯。与白炽灯相比，LED耗电少、又便宜，并且把现有设备换为LED的费用也是极小的。

推理：由于本题的问题在问方案，所以肯定是方案推理。
目标：减少成本
方案：安装LED灯

选题方式：方案推理有三个评估方向，简而言之，即，答案选项一定和方案的内容相关。

选项分析：

A选项：Correct. LED寿命是否至少和白炽灯一样长？如果LED的寿命更短，那么该方案就会有一个严重的副作用，甚至可能导致成本更高。属于CQ3：方案的否定性副作用。

B选项： 是否有城市已经把白炽灯换成了非LED的其它灯？本选项和方案无关。

C选项：卖白炽灯的公司是否也卖LED灯？除非在Traverton城只有这一家卖灯的公司，否则本选项和方案无关。

D选项：Traverton城的委员会是否计划增加交通灯？本选项和方案无关。

E选项：现在的换灯工人是否知道怎么把白炽灯换成LED灯？若现在的工人不知道怎么换灯，则本方案会有一些额外的培训成本。因此，本选项可以在一定程度上评估方案推理。但是由于本选项的评估强度较弱，所以不如(A)好。

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