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题库 / Prep2007E1-RC-34
Conventional wisdom has it that large deficits in the United States budget cause interest rates to rise. Two main arguments are given for this claim. According to the first, as the deficit increases, the government will borrow more to make up for the ensuing shortage of funds. Consequently, it is argued, if both the total supply of credit (money available for borrowing) and the amount of credit sought by nongovernment borrowers remain relatively stable, as is often supposed, then the price of credit (the interest rate) will increase. That this is so is suggested by the basic economic principle that if supplies of a commodity (here, credit) remain fixed and demand for that commodity increases, its price will also increase. The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. It is then argued that financiers will expect the deficit to cause inflation and will raise interest rates, anticipating that because of inflation the money they lend will be worth less when paid back.
Unfortunately for the first argument, it is unreasonable to assume that nongovernment borrowing and the supply of credit will remain relatively stable. Nongovernment borrowing sometimes decreases. When it does, increased government borrowing will not necessarily push up the total demand for credit. Alternatively, when credit availability increases, for example through greater foreign lending to the United States, then interest rates need not rise, even if both private and government borrowing increase.
The second argument is also problematic. Financing the deficit by increasing the money supply should cause inflation only when there is not enough room for economic growth. Currently, there is no reason to expect deficits to cause inflation. However, since many financiers believe that deficits ordinarily create inflation, then admittedly they will be inclined to raise interest rates to offset mistakenly anticipated inflation. This effect, however, is due to ignorance, not to the deficit itself, and could be lessened by educating financiers on this issue.
It can be inferred from the passage that proponents of the second argument would most likely agree with which of the following statements?
The United States government does not usually care whether or not inflation increases.
People in the United States government generally know very little about economics.
The United States government is sometimes careless in formulating its economic policies.
The United States government sometimes relies too much on the easy availability of foreign credit.
The United States government increases the money supply whenever there is enough room for growth to support the increase.
题目分析：
题目释义：
细节题目
考点：
推断（Inference）
旨在考察我们对文章的深度理解，以及逻辑推断能力。
想作对这道题目必须清楚地理解第二个论点讲的是什么。在“七经八脉”中有说明，此处不再赘述了。
选项分析：
A选项：美国政府通常不关心是否通货膨胀是否会增加。这个选项做了一个概念偷换，即美国政府不关心的是增加借贷会否引发通货膨胀，而不是不关心通货膨胀是否增加。
B选项：政府的人一般都对经济知之甚少。文章中类似的观点出现在“This effect, however, is due to ignorance, not to the deficit itself, and could be lessened by educating financiers on this issue.”。但是通过这句话我们无法推断出金融家们对经济是知之甚少的。而且值得注意的是，我们这样的解析已经有异议的把金融家和政府人画了等号，文中没有证据表明这两个是可以画等号的。所以这个选项肯定是错误的。
C选项：Correct。美国政府有时指定的经济政策是比较粗心的。这个从“the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. ”可以看出，政府制定的政策是比较不小心的，因为它不管是否会引发通货膨胀。
D选项：美国政府有时候十分依赖外国的贷款。出现类似这个选项的是在原文第二段中“Alternatively, when credit availability increases, for example through greater foreign lending to the United States, then interest rates need not rise, even if both private and government borrowing increase.”，但是没有证据证明美国政府依赖这些贷款，而且这句话也和第一段提到的第二个观点无关。
E选项：美国政府只有在有足够的空间支持这个增加时才会增加金钱的供应。这个选项把第二个论点的意思弄反了。
第二个理论应该是这样的：政府为了还清财政赤字，经常会通过印钱的方式解决，这样就加大了市场货币的流通量，这样会造成通货膨胀，所以政府为了不抵消市场上货币流通量太大和通货膨胀的问题，会通过提高利率来回笼货币。
但是，文章说印钱不见得就会造成通货膨胀。“美国政府有时指定的经济政策是比较粗心的”这个观点本身就是附带出来的一个观点，其实和第二个理论的支持者的主要逻辑没什么关系，他们最根本的ground应该是相信“印钱一定会造成通货膨胀”。
the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation.
insufficient————careless
careless粗心的，C选项的出错概率小
the government (will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply) with insufficient regard (for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation.) 政府考虑不充分
定位第一段The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation.
insufficient regard不够充分考虑....
题目的意思是，被作者反驳的第二论点的支持者
C选项：Correct。美国政府有时指定的经济政策是比较粗心的。这个从“the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. ”可以看出，政府制定的政策是比较不小心的，因为它不管是否会引发通货膨胀。
E. 句子意思理解错误。The United States government increases the money supply whenever there is enough room for growth to support the increase.
美国政府只有在有足够的空间支持这个增加时才会增加金钱的供应。
而原文是“the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. ”可以看出，政府制定的政策条件是——不管是否会引发通货膨胀。
是支持第二个论点，不是支持作者反对第二个论点的言论
首先，需要精准定位，然后回到原文（讲第二个观点的支持者）；正确选项是对原文的概括总结；夸大选项不可以，思考是否违背常识。
E. 句子意思理解错误。The United States government increases the money supply whenever there is enough room for growth to support the increase.
去掉第二行的“不”字
with insufficient regard =careless
The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. 说明美国政府没有充分考虑空间是否充足。E选项是只有空间充足时才会增加。意思不对！
The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for
A usually 错 文中提到是finance the deficit
B people in the government 错； very little 错
C The United States government is sometimes careless in formulating its economic policies.
D 无关
E 没有空间才加
The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation
第二个论据认为，政府会通过提高金钱供给，在没有充分考虑是否有足够的经济增长空间允许这样的增长在不引起的通货膨胀的前提之下发生。
with insufficient regard= careless 改写
choice e, increases the money supply whenever there is enough room for growth to support the increase。意思和原文正好相反
nsufficient regard = careless in formulating ...
government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with [ insufficient regard ] for whether ....
OA:C insufficient regard = careless in formulating ...
E选项：理解反了意思，任何时候只要有足够的...，就会增加，并不是第二种观点想表达的意思
C选项：这不是must be true题，这个选项非常好的解释了infer的意思