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题库 / Prep2008E1-CR-93
Following several years of declining advertising sales, the Greenville Times reorganized its advertising sales force two years ago. Before the reorganization, the sales force was organized geographically, with some sales representatives concentrating on city-center businesses and others concentrating on different outlying regions. The reorganization attempted to increase the sales representatives' knowledge of clients' businesses by having each sales representative deal with only one type of industry or of retailing. After the reorganization, advertising sales increased.
In assessing whether the improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed to the reorganization, it would be helpful to find out each of the following EXCEPT:
Two years ago, what proportion of the Greenville Times's total revenue was generated by advertising sales?
Has the circulation of the Greenville Times increased substantially in the last two years?
Has there been a substantial turnover in personnel in the advertising sales force over the last two years?
Before the reorganization, had sales representatives found it difficult to keep up with relevant developments in all the types of businesses to which they were assigned?
Has the economy in Greenville and the surrounding regions been growing rapidly over the last two years?
情景：Greenville Times在两年前重组了广告销售部门。现在的现象是，在重组之后，广告的销售上升了。
推理：
前提：reorganization和advertising sales increased之间存在正相关关系
结论：The improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed tothe reorganization
答案预估：
其它能解释为何“提高了广告销售”的原因。
“重组导致广告销售提高”的其它必要条件（常理上能保真推理出的一切结果）。
选项分析：
A选项：Correct. 两年以前，广告销售的收入占Greenville Times总收入的百分比是多少？ 本选项没有提及reorganization，它给出的是广告销售收入和总收入之间的关系，不能评估相关因果推理。
B选项：近两年来，Greenville Times的传播量有没有显著的上升？本选项给出了advertising sales increased的另一个可能的原因，即，传播量增大也可能导致广告销售收入上升。
C选项：近两年在广告销售部门的人事问题上有没有重大变动？如果有，证明重组是有意义的，如果没有，就证明重组是没意义的。建立了因和果之间的相关性。
D选项：在重组之前，销售代表有没有发现很难跟上指派给他们的所有类型的商业任务的相关发展进度？本选项同(C)。
E选项：在Greenville和其周边的地区的经济是不是在过去的两年内是否上涨迅速？本选项给出了advertising sales increased的另一个可能的原因，即，经济变好可能导致广告销售收入上升。
结论是重组后广告销售额增加，问哪个评估不了是重组的原因。A和广告销售额占总收入的多少是完全没关系的，讨论的是具体，不是比例。B，是不是因为随着时间的增加发行量上升，不是因为重组？可以评估。C，是不是因为人事上变动影响销售额，而不是重组？可以评估。D销售代表会不会跟上销售进度表明重组是有用的，因为之前跟不上销售进度可能导致销量小，重组后销售进度跟上了销量可能会增加。可以评估。 E，经济是否上涨？经济上涨可能导致销量上涨，可能不是因为重组，所以会影响结论。可以评估。注意：此题目是两年后重组会不会影响销售额，而BCDE涉及的都是过去两年这个时间段的其它会影响销售额的因素。
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