In Asia, where palm trees are non-native, the trees' flowers have traditionally been pollinated by hand, which has kept palm fruit productivity unnaturally low. When weevils known to be efficient pollinators of palm flowers were introduced into Asia in 1980, palm fruit productivity increased— by up to 50 percent in some areas—but then decreased sharply in 1984.

Which of the following statements, if true, would best explain the 1984 decrease in productivity?


Prices for palm fruit fell between 1980 and 1984 following the rise in production and a concurrent fall in demand.

Imported trees are often more productive than native trees because the imported ones have left behind their pests and diseases in their native lands.

Rapid increases in productivity tend to deplete trees of nutrients needed for the development of the fruit-producing female flowers.

Weevil population in Asia remained at approximately the same level between 1980 and 1984.

Prior to 1980 another species of insect pollinated the Asian palm trees, but not as efficiently as the species of weevil that was introduced in 1980.

考题讲解

情景:亚洲,棕榈树不是本地物种,授粉由人工完成,这使得棕榈树的果实产量非常低。weevils是众所周知的棕榈树花的授粉者,当weevils在1980年被引入亚洲时,棕榈树果实产量在一些地方增长了50%,但1984年产量则大大下降。

推理:本题是一个“现象解释型考题”。按照正常逻辑来说,即,结论应该为:1984年产量增加。
前提:当weevils在1980年被引入亚洲时,棕榈树果实产量上升。
结论:1984年,棕榈树果实产量上升。
显然地,前提和结论在讨论是相同的事件,因此本题为类比推理,类比对象为两个年份,即,1980年和1984年。

选题方式:类比推理一共具有两个评估方向,简而言之,即,要么提到“1980”或“1984”,要么给出与这两个案例相平行等价的案例C。

选项分析:

A选项:在产量上升但需求下降后,棕榈树的果实价格下降。本选项没有提及两个年份的区别。

B选项:因为进口棕榈树树没有原来的害虫或病毒,进口树产量比本地树产量更高。本选项没有提及两个年份的区别。

C选项:产量的快速增长往往耗尽树的营养,这些营养是产果的雌花需要的。本选项实际上给出了两个年份的区别,因为1980年weevils刚刚进入亚洲,所以当时的营养还比较丰富,随后在1984年,营养耗尽导致1984产果下降。属于CQ1:相似性问题

D选项:亚洲weevils数量在1980和1984年间保持近乎同一水平。本选项给出了两个年份的相同点,可以略微加强推理文段。

E选项:1980年前,棕榈树的另一种昆虫为棕榈树授粉,但没有weevils的授粉效率高。本选项没有提及两个年份的区别。

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