Which of the following most logically completes the passage?

Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses for one or two years, hoping for higher prices in the future. This year's pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is nonetheless quite possible that a portion of this year's crop will be held back, since ________.


each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields

the quality of this year's pecan crop is no worse than the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years

pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years

for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's

the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widespread the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year

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考题讲解

情景：山核桃种植户在山核桃稀少的时候可以给它定一个比较高的价格，但是当山核桃的产量很高的时候，价格也会一落千丈。所以，在高产的年份，山核桃的种植者往往会将一部分山核桃在谷仓中存储1－2年，希望以后可以以高价卖出。今年，山核桃的产量是过去5年里最小的。但是，种植户很有可能会把今年的山核桃存起来。

推理：本题是一个“现象解释型考题”。按照正常逻辑来说，即，结论应该为“种植户今年会把山核桃都卖出去”。由于前提和结论讲的是一件事，所以本题属于类比推理。

选题方式：类比推理一共具有两个评估方向，要么提到“正常”或“今年”，要么给出与这两个案例相平行等价的案例C。

选项分析：

A选项： Correct. 过去的两年都生产出了超记录的山核桃量。本选项指出了今年与正常情况的不同点。属于CQ1：相似性问题。

B选项：今年的山核桃的质量不比之前的质量差。本选项没有给出不同点，反而给出了一个相似点，只能加强推理文段。

C选项：山核桃价格在过去的5年给均没有波动。本选项错误同(B)。

D选项：对于某些山核桃种植户来说，今年的山核桃不比去年的小。本选项错误同(B)。

E选项：囤粮的做法在上一次粮产量很小的时候应用还不是很广泛。本选项没有提到案例名称。

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